March 19, 2018

Tri-Valley Real Estate Prices & Trends

March 19, 2018

Tri-Valley Real Estate Prices & Trends

The chart below illustrates year-over-year changes in home values using the 3-month period of December, January and February sales: 6.4% appreciation in median sales prices and 11.5% for dollar per square foot values since last year. The usual reason why median price and price per square foot appreciation rates diverge like this is because the average size of homes sold during the 2 periods changed, and this is what occurred from last year to this year: Average house size dropped a little over 9%. All thing being equal, smaller homes typically sell for lower prices, but higher per square foot values. The actual, overall home-value appreciation rate is probably somewhere between the two.

Year-over-Year Comparisons
Median Prices & Price per Square Foot

It is still very early in the year to come to definitive conclusions, but so far in 2018, the entire Bay Area appears to have shrugged off concerns regarding increasing prices, rising interest rates, stock market volatility and federal tax law changes. We will know more once sales data from the spring selling season starts coming in.

Median Home Value Appreciation Trends
since 2012 by City

The next 2 charts are snapshots of annual appreciation since 2012 in the 4 Tri-Valley cities.

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
& Average Days on Market (DOM)

As measured by 2 classic measures of supply and demand, the Tri-Valley market in recent months has certainly not softened in comparison to the last 2 years, but, indeed, has become even hotter. Generally speaking, this is playing out around the Bay Area, but more dramatically in the Tri-Valley area. MSI and Days on Market figures in the Tri-Valley cities are among the lowest in the Bay Area (and the nation), and signify very high demand in comparison to the supply of listings available to purchase.

New Listings Coming on Market
& Listings Accepting Offers

This next chart graphs the intense seasonality of the Tri-Valley market: We are just beginning what is typically the biggest selling season of the year.

Tri-Valley Luxury Home Market

The average Tri-Valley home selling between $1.25m and $1.499m was a 4 bedroom, 3 bath, 3125 square foot house. Moving to $2m and above, the average home was a 5 bedroom, 4.5 bath, 5070 square foot house. As always, there are significant differences in prices based on specific location, condition, lot size and other factors.

Rising Mortgage Interest Rates

Short-Term Trends

Long-Term Trends

More reading for those interested:

Paragon Main Reports Page
Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Market Report
Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets
Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group
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